Gold, Silver, PM's and Markets

"Do not do things or say things that hurt others."

If everyone believed and practiced the above, we would all be much better off. 

It appears to me that this site is slowly becoming more and more like previous PM sites I participated in.  Eventually, most of those sites turned from discussions of precious metals to mostly discussions about race/ethnicity.  After a while, many of those sites became downright nasty and as a result, were ultimately terminated.    Food for thought. 

You cannot have backbone in U.S. politics anymore. Anyone that does, is quickly sent packing.  This applies equally regardless of party.  It is no longer the land of the brave and it is most certainly not free.   

"Systemic Stupidity"

That is one of the smartest statements I have read in a while.  The U.S. has become "The Land of the Morons."

If Trump did have highly classified and highly sensitive documents that could impact national security in his personal possession, would that justify the search?  As far as I can tell, to this point, nobody has any precise information on what drove the DOJ and FBI to take the action they did.  Perhaps it would be more prudent to hold judgment one way or the other, until more definitive information is known.   

Well, we have the up, down, up, down moves so far.  This sector is like a roulette game--bounces all over the place with a few fake moves in-between beginning and end. 

USD down 1.25.  One would think POG would be up significantly here. 

POG broke above that psychological $1800 level and is currently sitting at first resistance of $1801.  Let's see which way it goes from here. 

Tomsue;

There is no harm in being wary of something.  In fact, I am of the opinion that it behooves people to be wary of many things. I just have a problem (as I pointed out earlier) with articles that sight as fact what somebody heard from somebody else as was the case on that Canadian article on doctor deaths.  There are tons of articles written everyday that are based on even less facts.   Am I stating or suggesting that the anti-vax people are wrong?  No, I am not.  I choose to be vaccinated, but that doesn't mean I made the right choice.  My main point is that people should evaluate both sides of the argument equally.  Doing that would more ideally fit the philosophy of keeping an open mind.   

I was surprised to see PMs up early.  That is not the type of action we have been getting before events like CPI and PPI.  But, now I see they are acting more in line with expectations. 

Permabear;

"The official US governments show that vaccine deaths and injuries from the COVID injections are equal to the total such deaths and injuries for all 30 years of vaars statistics."

Please provide the official U.S. government site noted above that shows these stats. 

"A doctor friend of mine in Canada heard about 15 deaths of Canadian doctors over the last 9 months."

Very scientific evidence.

Initial reaction to employment report is POG negative.  Let's see if it reverses course as has been the process lately. 

Looks like they pushed gold up early so then they can take it back down.  When this happens, the PM stocks usually take a hit even though POG may still end the day in positive territory.  It is a proven technique the shysters like to use over and over. 

It's odd that nobody seems to know what has happened to Frustrated.  If somebody in fact does, please share that information with us, if it isn't personal.  I miss her postings. 

Permabear;

There's no doubt in my mind that PM shares are arguably the worst managed sector--have been for years.  As a result, they have grossly underperformed when compared to any other sector over the course of the year , 3 years, 5 years, 10 years, 20 years, etc. 

Looks like everything is rosy in the market except for the PMs.  PM getting trashed as usual. 

Thanks Permabear.  I can use some positive reinforcement. 

Apollo;

Great!  Thanks. 

POG is making a nice move, but PM stocks still looking sick. 

I've had 7 straight weeks of losses in my PM portfolio with a 24% decline in value during this seven weeks period.  7 straight weeks of losses is the longest streak of losses in over 10 years of weekly tracking.  I am not whining--just making a factual statement. I do believe we have to be close to the bottom. 

The USD is down big today.  One would expect a bigger move in POG. 

Zigg:  $102.54.

Then that is the amount I would like to see POG drop in one session and hope that will be capitulation. 

Capitulation?

Yeap Hambone, I have been hoping for at least a $100 drop in POG and somewhere around 10% drop in the stocks in one day. That usually does the trick.  But, for the most part, all we have had has been a steady drip, drip. 

The POS is very close to what I paid for it back in 1983 which was $11.73.  That is when I purchased the bulk of my silver holdings.  Imagine that! The gain in POS over a period of nearly 40 years is not even 50% while inflation during the same period has to be around 500%.  It's hard to defend the argument that physical (at least silver physical) is a store of value.   

I was surprised to see POG take a big hit after the inflation numbers.  I guess it just fell in sympathy with everything else.  But, those numbers should be good for the metal.  I expect some improvement in the metals the rest of the week.  We all know how the initial reaction is usually a head fake.  The selling is overdone. 

Apollo.

Sounds logical.  Thanks.

More jobs created than expected.  Looks like good news on the recession front, but bad news for inflation.  I think we will have an initial down move followed by a reversal.  But, then again, there is no telling how the metals will react these days.  Seems that all news is bad news. 

Zigg;

Sure, I could be wrong.  I understand that.  I'd be an egotistical fool to believe otherwise. 

Bigley Gaines;

The reason you feel that way is because you are clearly on the side you believe in.  That is fine.  You have the right to believe whatever you want.  However, you having that belief does not necessarily make me wrong.  It just means I have a different belief.     

I always get a chuckle when I read bias remarks from the right about how terrible the democrats are and how their progressive agenda is destroying the country.  I chuckle no less when I read opposing remarks about how the right is destroying democracy through their fundamentalist philosophy.  I don't chuckle because it's funny.  I chuckle at the naivety of it all.  Anybody who seriously believes there is a fundamental difference between the two parties, between the left and the right, between Biden and Trump, is not living in reality.  People are people and for the most part, we behave in a manner consistent with our species.  There are no ETs amongst us (at least none that I am aware of).  There are levels of goodness and badness by all of us.  So, there isn't anything special about the republicans or the democrats that makes one side more prone to corruption, ineptitude, hatred, greed, etc.  It's all divisive nonsense!

Boris Johnson resigns.  The conservative movement seems to be losing a little bit of steam in Europe.  A short while back Macron easily defeated his conservative rival Le Pen and now Boris Johnson is out. 

Well, the PM stocks are suggesting the bottom in physical may have been hit.  We'll see shortly if that's the case. 

It seems to me that the basic logic is: "the more violence we have, the more guns we need to protect ourselves."  This is  circular reasoning and thus it's a logical fallacy.  The U.S. has been steadily declining over the course of the last few decades in formal education.  It also has not been doing well in applying good common sense to solve critical issues. That's a terrible combination. 

309 mas shootings so far this year.  Assault weapons mass shootings have tripled since the assault weapons band was lifted.  But, of course the NRA and associates argue that these weapons are not the cause.  The cause is mentally ill Americans.  Well, there is some truth to this--only mentally ill individuals would do what they have done.  However, the U.S. does not have a monopoly on mental illness, but one could argue that it does have the most ridiculous rules regarding gun ownership. 

I've been waiting/expecting a capitulation in the metals sector to take place.  We might get it this week. We need a big downward move to get rid of all the weak hands.  These types of moves in the metals sector are scary, but most of us have a great deal of experience with them.  They come and go.  It's best just to ride the wave. 

I would like to see a quick $100 POG drop or more.  We need a good flushing out.  So far, it has been a steady drip, drip by POG. I want to have the bandage yanked off.     

POG/XAU:  16.14 and climbing.  It was only a couple of months ago that the ratio was roughly a third lower/below 12.  The only other time I have seen the ratio deteriorate so quickly was after the PM peak of 2011. 

Permabear1;

Most goldbugs invest in gold and to a lesser extent in silver,  to cover themselves in case an economic situation like the current one were to happen.  If gold and silver do not protect us from this kind of market turmoil, then they are basically useless relics. It does not matter what the drivers are.  If PMs stink while the general market is rising and also stink while the general market is dropping then possessing them makes absolutely no sense. 

Well, that support level Apollo noted has been taken out.  Nothing but red in the precious metals sector--nothing precious about them. 

Permabear 1, your 641.

Thanks.  Good charts.  I wonder if XAU/POG will ever get above .1 again.  The ratio was around .24 just before the 2008 crash.  It was around .12 or .13 at the height of the PM indices in 2011 when POG was around $1900, which means that between 2008 and 2011 it was declining relative to POG.  It went below .1 a short while later and has not been above this level ever since.  Just prior to the 2008 crash, the historical XAU/POG average was .253.  If the XAU/POG average was anywhere close to the pre 2008 historical level, the XAU would be somewhere between 400 and 500.  That is some serious under performance.  As many smart posters have stated, "get out of PM stocks and hold physical."

For the week. POG is down roughly 1% while the PM stocks are down roughly 7%.  POG/XAU now above 15.  It was below 12 a few weeks ago.  Translation:  PMs are severely underperforming relative to POG. 

Right Apollo.  More often than not the PM market reverses whatever it did immediately after the announcement.  At times it will do a double reversal, so one can't be sure of where it will end up. 

So if the fed hikes by the anticipated .75 basis points and remains hawkish, What do posters think will happen to the POG short term/long term? 

Permabear 1. 

I am right there with you.  Had I taken all the money I've put into PMs and purchased CDs or placed it in money market accounts, I would be substantially better off.  I am not a good day trader, so I don't do that.  I tried trading for a while and really got my butt kicked.  So, most of my PM holdings have been long term.  I still own 2 PM mutual funds that I purchased in the late eighties.  I have been waiting for about 40 years for PMs to have their day in the sun.  We've had a couple of good runs like the move from 2000 to 2008.  However, when compared to most other asset classes, PMs have been a major disappointment. But, I am not getting out at this point--will in all probability, go down with the ship.   

Bigley Gaines;

There doesn't seem to be anywhere to hide except perhaps oil and I clearly remember when oil dropped below zero not that long ago.  Maybe the dollar, but that can't last either.  There just aren't any safe havens anymore.  Everyone is going to take a big hit (except maybe the bankers who always seem to pull a Houdini by magically escaping).  Even investors in money markets, CDs and the like are going to take a big hit due to double digit inflation. 

Permabear1.

Agree with that. 

Norwester1.

Of course.  I am just delighted to see the metals react the way most of us believe they should react under existing circumstances.  I will take this type of move and enjoy it for as long as it lasts.  Apr/May/Jun is typically the worst quarter for PMs, so I usually don't expect much during this quarter. 

That's more like it!

POG has recovered most of today's losses, but PM stocks remain near their lows.